The CBA is forecasting a surge in house prices over the next two years of up to 16 per cent, while unit price-growth will be more muted at 9 per cent.
According to the CBA, lending rates have lifted sharply, signalling a housing market on the “cusp of a boom”.
“The increase in new lending is now feeding into higher prices for bricks and mortar,” CBA economist Gareth Aird said.
“The negative impact that Covid-19 had on Australian property prices turned out to be much more muted than almost any forecaster expected, us included.
“We were earlier than most, however, to recognise this and revised our call in September 2020 to look for a smaller peak-to-trough fall and a decent lift in prices over 2021.
“But even then, the rapid growth in new lending over the second half of 2020 was stronger than we anticipated.”
Capital city forecasts
In its most recent economics issues report, released today, economists at the CBA reported the boom was off the back of record low interest rates and a v-shaped labour market recovery.
Aird said record low borrowing rates remained below rental yields across most markets and it meant property markets “would need to find equilibrium” in the form of dwelling price rises.
“A critical assumption underpinning our forecasts is the cash rate remaining at its record low of 0.1 per cent, which is in line with RBA forward guidance,” Aird said.
“We do, however, factor in a modest increase in fixed rate mortgages, which will rise if the RBA removes or raises its target yield on the three-year Australian Government bond, as we expect in the second half of 2021.”
The CBA is reporting positive momentum is building within the property market and “as the market firms, would-be buyers are more confident to purchase and this brings other buyers into the market”.
The news is less positive for unit-owners. CBA is forecasting a disparity in price growth between houses and apartments.
“We forecast national house prices to rise by 16 per cent over the next two years and unit prices to rise by 9 per cent,” Aird said.
Article Source: theurbandeveloper.com
House prices to plummet as huge interest rate increase expected
A major bank has warned house prices will plummet this year as faster rate hikes have a chilling impact on the property market, amid fears that interest rates could rise by a whopping 0.4 per cent next month.
Earlier this year, ANZ had predicted that house prices would rise by 8 per cent on average in capital cites across Australia, but it has now slashed the forecast to house values dropping by 3 per cent in 2022 on the back of unexpected rate rises for the rest of the year.
The major bank has also forecast that house prices will plunge by a further 8 per cent next year, an even bigger drop than its earlier forecast for 2023.
The country’s third biggest home lender said the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move to raise rates far earlier than expected would have a sobering effect on the property market as buyers are limited by the amount they can borrow.
ANZ senior economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell have said interest rates will hit 2.35 per cent by the middle of 2023, although other experts have tipped them to reach as high as 3.25 per cent by that year.
“Housing prices look set to turn lower in coming months,” the economists wrote.
“While fixed rates have already risen sharply, the steep increases in the cash rate will flow through to variable mortgage rates, lifting minimum repayments significantly and reducing borrowing power. Macroprudential tightening, solid supply and constrained affordability will also be headwinds for house prices.”
ANZ’s economists added that official interest rates of 2.35 per cent would see a variable mortgage rate soar to 4.75 per cent, which would “significantly” reduce how much people could borrow.
House prices have already began to drop in some capitals. In Sydney, prices decreased for the first time since early in the pandemic by 0.1 per cent in April and in Hobart the drop was more marked at 0.44 per cent, the first time prices have fallen since early 2018.
ANZ predicted Sydney house prices would drop the most dramatically in the coming months with a fall of 8 per cent this year as a greater supply of homes hit the market and lenders further tighten their lending standards.
Interest rate rises would also trigger a drop of 8 per cent in Sydney house prices in 2023, their economists said.
For Melbourne, prices were expected to decrease by 5 per cent this year and 6 per cent in 2023, although Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth would buck the trend and still see house prices go up this year.
But 2023 was a different story with house prices predicted to drop by 9 per cent in Brisbane, 13 per cent in Adelaide and 7 per cent in Perth, according to ANZ economists.
Despite the RBA expressing concerns about the impact of higher interest rates on Australians who are highly indebted when it comes to property, according to the minutes published from its May 3 meeting, it still caught experts off guard when it hiked rates by 0.25 per cent.
However, homeowners narrowly avoided an even bigger jump and there’s a risk this super-sized move could be made by the RBA in June, experts have warned.
The RBA minutes showed it was weighing up a rate rise of either 0.15 per cent, 0.25 per cent or 0.4 per cent.
“Members agreed that raising the cash rate by 15 basis points was not the preferred option given that policy was very stimulatory and that it was highly probable that further rate rises would be required,” the minutes said.
“A 15-basis-point increase would also be inconsistent with the historical practice of changing the cash rate in increments of at least 25 basis points.
“An argument for an increase of 40 basis points could be made given the upside risks to inflation and the current very low level of interest rates.
“However, members agreed that the preferred option was 25 basis points. A move of this size would help signal that the board was now returning to normal operating procedures after the extraordinary period of the pandemic.”
Economists are predicting that a 0.4 per cent rate rise could seriously be in play for June.
Commonwealth Bank’s Belinda Allen argued it can’t be “ruled out” and will hinge on data from the Wage Price Index.
Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans said a 0.4 per cent increase in June could be seen as “best policy” considering labour shortages, rising labour costs and inflation challenges.
He added there was no “real argument” against the 0.4 per cent rise next month, “although the RBA said that because it meets monthly it would have the opportunity to review the setting of interest rates again within a relatively short period of time”.
The RBA’s reference to other central banks around the world moving to raise interest rates could be another telling sign that the bigger rate hike is on the cards.
“Several central banks in advanced economies had indicated that they were seeking to return policy rates to a neutral setting quickly and may increase policy rates further thereafter,” the minutes said.
The RBA also revealed that its economists assumed interest rates will hit 1.75 per cent by the end of the year and 2.5 per cent by the end of 2023.
All of Australia’s banking juggernauts responded to this month’s historic rate rise within hours and passed on the hike.
It’s a challenge that the RBA is well aware of too.
“Housing prices in Australia could also be more sensitive to rising interest rates than assumed, which would be likely to result in lower household wealth and consumption,” the minutes read.
Article source: www.news.com.au
Why Siera Group chose Chevron Island for Tapestry
To make the move from one property market to another is a huge step for any developer.
It often brings an element of uncertainty and unpredictability.
But the approach and due diligence by Siera Group’s Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson will be one that will breed optimism over pessimism in to the market, compared to other developers who have been jumping head first into one of Australia’s most in demand pockets for the last two years and are now facing challenges.
The Brisbane-based boutique developer have not only taken on a new project type, but a completely new location, by venturing down to the Gold Coast to tackle the booming apartment sector.
Thompson, who has a highly regarded CV as a board member at the UDIA, as well being a prominent developer around Brisbane’s inner-ring for many years, spent six to 12 months splitting his time between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, understanding everything about the local market, what people were buying, and what was being developed.
The result is Tapestry, a 22-level arts-inspired apartment tower, designed to be in keeping with Chevron Island’s growing standing at the cultural arts hub of the Gold Coast.
“What drew us to this site for Tapestry was really Chevron Island itself and the fantastic community that is literally on the doorstep of Surfers Paradise, in the heart of the Gold Coast,” Thompson said.
“Chevron Island is a tight knit community with a high street full of cafes, restaurants and boutiques, as well as nearby links to HOTA, the home of the arts precinct, which is just across the Green Bridge and just a short walk from Tapestry.
“After all the research and understanding Chevron Island as a whole, it really felt like it was the perfect place to deliver a project like Tapestry, where we’ve created this phenomenal amount of amenity and beautiful residences that locals will be able to move into and downsize.”
Thompson said what makes makes Chevron Island so great, and not just the community piece, is the locality and how easy it is to access everything on the Gold Coast from Chevron Island.
“We’re only a short, flat walk into Surfers Paradise, where you’ve got the beautiful golden beaches as well as an immense amount of shopping and retail precinct.
“We’re seeing a great deal of gentrification though Surfers Paradise, as well as Chevron Island, as we’re seeing this increased densification of these areas.”
Tapestry has been designed by the local architecture firm BDA, whose brief was to merge art with architecture.
The result is a striking building of 113 apartments, featuring a mixture of vertical blade walls and horizontal slab edges which respond to available views and natural light.
The local aspect in the creation of Tapestry was one of the key focuses for Thompson.
Aligning with the Gold Coast City Council’s efforts to make Surfers Paradise an arts and cultural hub, Siera also engaged local artist Tania Blanchard to create a piece of artwork that will hang in the lobby when completed.
Article source: www.urban.com.au
Why Iris Capital chose Broadbeach for their first Gold Coast apartment project
After initially focussing on Sydney’s fast growing south west corridor, Iris Capital, founded and led by entrepreneur Sam Arnaout, has now extended its reach over the past decade to become a developer of integrated residential and mixed-use developments in a number of booming suburbs across the country.
The company now holds a $5 billion enterprise value, having significantly expanded its footprint over the past year through a number of land and hotel acquisitions.
We recently caught up with Iris Capital CEO, Sam Arnaout to discuss why the group chose Broadbeach as their first Gold Coast project.
“It was the first and only location that I would consider undertaking such a spectacular residential/resort with coastal luxury as its core design focus,” Arnaout said.
“Only Broadbeach and this current Neicon Plaza redevelopment site offered us the opportunity where everything is at our buyers fingertips. This has allowed Iris to design this mixed use coastal luxury development in a landmark location, where our two premium towers will preside over a world class recreational podium and premium ground floor retail and dining.”
“Choosing Broadbeach as the address for our V&A project in the lively heart of its dining and retail precinct has allowed us to put our brand on our first luxury foray into Queensland.”
Colliers’ Director Residential, David Higgins, who is handling the market of V&A, says Broadbeach is comparable to Sydney’s Double Bay.
“Being from Sydney, I often think that Broadbeach is our Double Bay with the dining, high end retail, laneway cafes, beautiful Kurrawa parkland, the beach, and the amenity that is uniquely Broadbeach all within a five-minutes walk,” he said.
Recognised as the heart of the Gold Coast, Broadbeach offers a host of nearby amenity, further adding to the likability of the sought-after suburb.
“The walkability of the location to over 30 restaurants, GC Convention Centre, Pacific Fair, The Star Casino, the Beach and Kurrawa SLSC makes it the most lifestyle rich village locations to undertake a premium development,” Higgins said.
Main Beach, Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach are distinctly different real estate suburbs and attract very different buyer demographics says Higgins.
“Main Beach has a small, limited choice of dining and café options, where the lifestyle is focused around the renowned Tedder Avenue, which attracts an older buyer type to the very quiet village location.”
“Surfers Paradise features a more prominent nightclub and late-night venue scene, with destinations attracting singles, tourists groups and the young-at-heart.”
“Broadbeach has a much wider appeal both domestically and internationally, where you are spoilt with the supreme choice of dining, entertainment, bars, shopping all at the residents fingertips.”
Revered as “the most desired location” for developers looking to hit the family owner-occupier market, Higgins says Broadbeach marks itself as the place that can do it all.
“This area attracts a more mature, family-buyer market, sometimes even multi-generational buyers, who want the village location, where they can park there car below their apartments and walk to everything when either residing or choosing to live in Broadbeach.”
Taking its name from Broadbeach streets, Victoria and Albert, the project will comprise 398 apartments over two towers of 40 and 56 storeys, with a subtropical recreational podium, featuring two levels of premium offices and commercial facilities, and a fresh food and dining retail on the street level.
Designed by DBI Architects, residents will live among world‐class amenities, with both towers offering an elevated recreational podium with a 25-metre lap pool, a gym, a yoga deck and resident’s lounge as well as kid’s area, a Zen garden, an outdoor dining and barbecue space, all surrounded by lush green landscaping.
Once complete, V&A Broadbeach will create the first high end residential, retail and culinary precinct in central Broadbeach since the Oracle towers more than a decade ago.
“The family orientated downsizer buyers are the main demographic who are looking for larger apartments in Broadbeach and who share a history with a long love of the area,” said Higgins.
“This comes from spending many childhood family memories holidaying or enjoying Broadie apartments, with strong childhood memories of the village of Broadie. Having a memberships and wanting to be close to the Kurruwa SLSC and the family park is also important to owner occupiers.”
“For the investors, they are always looking for the two or three-bedroom apartment with a beautiful view in the heart of Broadbeach, where they can look forward to the strong proven returns from a very established holiday and conference rental market.”
“Many southern downsizers are seeking the village location where walkability, amenity, luxury and convenience is at the top of the purchasing requirements,” Higgins added.
Article source: www.urban.com.au
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