Westpac has upgraded its housing market forecasts, tipping house prices to lift by a further 5 per cent in the remaining three months of 2021 to be up 22 per cent for the year.
Prices in the major capital cities are already up 17 per cent for the year to September and are tracking for a 1.5 per cent gain in October.
Westpac expects Sydney home prices to lift by 27 per cent for this year, well above its previous forecast in August of 22 per cent, before lifting again next year by 6 per cent.
Melbourne is also expected to surpass its previous forecast by 2 per cent to be up 18 per cent for the year.
Sydney’s house prices and Melbourne’s house prices are currently, 18 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, above their previous price peaks in 2017-18.
Brisbane’s house prices, already up 19.9 per cent over the last ten months, still has a further 2 per cent to grow before the close of the year, before picking up again by 10 per cent in 2022.
Nationally, prices are forecast to lift again next year, with Westpac revising its earlier call of 5 per cent to 8 per cent.
The bank expects most of 2022’s increase to be weighted in the first half of the year before moderating.
When are Australian house prices expected to drop?
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the bank was preparing for the market to move into a correction phase in early 2023 as higher interest rates, stretched affordability and the tightening of macro-prudential policies take hold.
“While the market upturn has weathered the latest Covid disruptions very well and is clearly carrying strong momentum, the boom is entering trickier territory,” Evans said.
“Price momentum has held up near term, prompting us to revise up the near-term outlook for prices.
“However, affordability is becoming stretched and policy tightening is now in play.”
Dwelling price forecasts
^Source: Corelogic, Westpac Economics
Westpac was the first major bank to tip rate rises ahead of the Reserve Bank’s current 2024 guidance, with Evans forecasting the first increase above the current historically low 0.1 per cent in early March 2023.
Other economists are preparing for the RBA to begin raising rates over 2023 and 2024 to a natural rate of about 1.25 per cent.
Westpac estimates rates any higher would place “significant stress” on household finances.
“We still expect the market to slow over the course of 2022 as macro-prudential policy; prospects of increased rates; and affordability reaching record lows triggers a correction phase that will begin in 2023 and is likely to extend into 2024,” Evans said.
“The combination of high levels of new building and slow population-driven demand may also weigh on some sub-markets.”
Corelogic research director Tim Lawless said the slowing growth conditions were the result of higher barriers to entry for non-home owners along with fewer government incentives to enter the market.
“With housing values rising substantially faster than household incomes, raising a deposit has become more challenging for most cohorts of the market, especially first home buyers,” Lawless said.
“Existing home owners looking to upgrade, downsize or move home may be less impacted as they have had the benefit of equity that has accrued as housing values surged.”
Housing credit has been growing at an annualised pace of about 7 per cent in recent months, more than double the rate of income growth.
According to data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the number of new mortgage loans where debt is at least six times greater than income lifted by 6 per cent in the June quarter.
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
Australia’s most Instagram-worthy home just got cheaper
One of the most beautiful homes in Australia is now $500,000 cheaper.
Casa Campana, in Nunderi, between the Gold Coast and Byron Bay in New South Wales, has an asking price of $3.5 million.
Agents have revised the figure on the listing from $4 million, which was quoted when it came onto the market, according to Domain.
The Mediterranean-style rainforest retreat, owned by creative agency founder Sophie Bell and her husband Michael, has been one of Australia’s most highly-sought homes for photoshoots.
Australian and international businesses and magazines have staged shoots at the eye-popping estate, which is on the books of LS Properties’ Brent Savage and Ethan Price.
Casa Campana has more than 18,000 followers on its own Instagram account.
The home has a bohemian flourish and crisp undertones, and was a collaboration between Sophie Bell’s Peppa Hart studio and Three Birds Renovations.
Highlights include steps from the house to a perfectly-paved pool pavilion, and the main bedroom’s luxe open-plan bathroom, which faces a sweeping terrace, surrounded by Tweed Coast hinterland.
Cabarita Beach is an easy drive away, if there was ever any desire to leave the pool…
Tour Casa Campana…
Article source: www.domain.com.au
Winning hand: Sizzling Coast market helps Star sell-out two towers, 879 apartments
The first residents who will live, as well as play, at The Star Casino on the Gold Coast are preparing to move in with all 422 apartments in the upper levels of The Star’s new $178m hotel and apartments tower sold out.
All apartments in the second $400m tower under construction and due for completion in 2024 have also sold, which means all 879 residential apartments across both towers have sold out in the scorching hot Gold Coast property market.
It is the first time that people are able to lay their money down to live at the casino.
The residential influx ushers in a new era of high-rolling in-casino living in Queensland, with the Gold Coast and Brisbane upping the ante on luxury integrated resort lifestyle offerings.
The sell-out also signals some good news for The Star amid damning ongoing compliance hearings surrounding The Star’s casino operations and an exodus of The Star Entertainment Group senior executives.
The luxury residential apartments join the startling upsurge of hotel rooms in the rapidly-developing tower builds on the Gold Coast casino’s Broadbeach island.
As well as residences, the new builds also bring around 900 apartments to the short-term holiday rental pool. Combined, the four towers on the island also mean The Star precinct will offer nearly 1200 hotel rooms and suites.
Destination Gold Coast Consortium Project Director Jaime Cali said The Star sales had seen “record growth and resiliency, despite the pandemic” among cashed-up downsizers and investors.
“Investors were out in force over the past summer with 80 per cent of the purchasers in the second tower being locals looking for a second investment,” Cali said.
“Remote and decentralised working arrangements as a result of the pandemic have seen investors attracted to a lifestyle where they have the convenience of dining and other facilities right on their doorstep.”
With the flurry of tower construction, the casino location is almost unrecognisable compared to a few short years ago.
Two new towers sit alongside the existing The Star Grand hotel and The Darling hotel.
The 53-storey Dorsett hotel is joined by the new $400 million 63-storey tower, which is as yet unnamed.
Under a $2 billion expanded masterplan, approved by the Queensland Government in November 2018, The Star could move to construct yet another three hotel towers to complement the current four.
The masterplan is being overseen by Destination Gold Coast Consortium—the joint venture between The Star, Chow Tai Fook Enterprises, and Far East Consortium.
The joint venture is also developing the $3.6 billion Queen’s Wharf Brisbane precinct.
Article source: inqld.com.au/news
Property cheat sheet: three ways the market has tipped in buyers’ favour
In real estate, the word on the street about the market is as compelling as crunchy data.
“I think this area is on the up”; “My niece scored a bargain there”; “I heard he sold it for less than he wanted…”.
The general vibe in the industry right now is this – the upper hand has switched from sellers, who were riding high prices in a hot market, to buyers, who now have the chance to score a property they love within budget, taking their time and enjoying more choice.
And we have the numbers to back that sentiment up.
These are three sets of digits that prove the advantage in the market is now tipping the way of buyers.
Listings are up
More choice of properties for sale means less competition among buyers.
When buyers have greater options, it water downs FOMO and the urge to fight (read: keep on bidding and pay more than your opposition) to win the keys.
Right now, Canberra buyers have a bigger boost in options than anyone in Australia. Listings in the capital have increased almost 20 per cent in the month to March (according to data from the most recent Domain House Price Report, which is crunched quarterly).
Adelaide has had the second biggest jump in listings, followed by Perth.
Canberra: Listings up 19.8 per cent (monthly change)
Sydney: Up 14 per cent
Darwin: Up 16.7 per cent
Gold Coast: Up 13.6 per cent
Brisbane: Up 12.4 per cent
Adelaide: Up 18.5 per cent
Hobart: Up 16 per cent
Melbourne: Up 15.9 per cent
Perth: Up 17.8 per cent
Clearance rates are down
Clearance rates are still one of the best measures of market performance. The figures reveal how many properties sold that week from those on offer.
In Melbourne, there are two big games in town – auctions and AFL. Melbourne is known as the auction capital of Australia. It’s a popular method of sale and a weekend pastime.
Clearance rates in Melbourne crept upwards between February and March – landing in mid-60s – but are much lower than clearance rates at same time last year (March 2021) and the summer market that closed out the year, where they hit the early to mid-70s.
In Sydney, the clearance rate continues to clock in below 70 per cent (for five months in a row), which suggests a cooling market, according to Domain’s research team.
Canberra’s clearance rate is almost 10 per cent lower than the same time last year, and are sitting a little bit below the 80 per cent-plus clearance rates that defined 2021.
Properties are taking longer to sell
The average number of days that houses are on the market has increased in some capital cities between February and March.
Buyers are biding their time and haggling harder, resulting in some homes remaining on the market for longer in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin, Hobart and Perth.
Only in Adelaide are houses selling ever-so slightly faster than the previous month.
In Melbourne, houses are on the market for a week longer, and it has skipped out by six days for Sydney and the ACT.
Domain measures days on market for private treaty listings (properties going auction have a set campaign of three or four weeks, but private listings linger until a buyer strikes at an acceptable price).
Buyers will see expressions of interest, private sale or even simply “contact agent” on private treaty ads, which means pick up the phone and start negotiating.
Canberra: March, 48 days on market; February, 42 days on market
Sydney: March, 46 days on market; February, 40 days on market
Darwin: March, 108 days on market; February 107 days on market
Brisbane: March, 37 days on market; February 35 days on market
Adelaide: March, 65 days on market; February 68 days on market
Hobart: March, 31 days on market; February 26 days on market
Melbourne: March, 52 days on market; February 45 days on market
Perth: March 61 days on market, February 65 days on market
Article source: www.nine.com.au
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