And chart 4 brings home the bacon.
This chart shows that the net economic benefit per capita or head of population in Queensland is in a slump. It is rising in both New South Wales and Victoria.
This chart also shows that there is a strong connection between economic benefit per head and house prices. When we aren’t all sharing in the economic spoils, local property values either flat line (as they did in the early to mid-1990s) or actually fall (like they have done in the recent past).
Because of the delay factor between economic wellbeing and house values, the recent fall in economic benefit per head suggests that local house values, could actually stagnate, not rise, in the coming years ahead.
So, more bums on a Queensland seat – this time around – isn’t shining everyone’s backside.
Yes, the total rate of economic growth in Queensland has lifted of late, but this isn’t being shared among the local residents as it has in the past.
To summarise, in Queensland, there are too many people and not enough economy.
It gets to the stage where just increasing the size of the local population isn’t enough.
So, while there is increased interest from interstate (and an overall lift in population growth), unless we see a dramatic improvement in the state’s economy, more bums on seats isn’t really doing the average Queenslander much good.
And this is why there is limited house price growth. In fact, Queensland’s housing market may actually be punching above its weight. Generic house price growth in south east Queensland over the next year or two is far from certain
Source: theurbandeveloper.com