The latest monthly data on Queensland house prices has confirmed what buyers already know — prices are booming.
- This month marks the sharpest monthly increase in Brisbane house prices since 2007
- Experts say the rise is due to low mortgage rates and a shortage of housing stock
- Demographers say net interstate migration to Queensland is the highest it has been in 20 years
Figures released by property analysts CoreLogic showed prices grew in almost every region of Queensland in February.
Across Brisbane, prices rose by 1.5 per cent in one month, taking annual growth to 5 per cent.
The February increase is the steepest rise since November 2007, when the monthly growth rate was 1.72 per cent.
In Brisbane’s east, house prices went up by nearly 10 per cent in 12 months.
The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast also posted strong price hikes, rising 2.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent in February, which pushed the 12 month gains up to 10.5 per cent and 11.2 per cent.
Townsville was the only region to record a drop with prices falling 0.6 per cent in February.
But the north Queensland city still posted a 12-month increase of 6.2 per cent.
CoreLogic’s Head of Residential Research Australia Eliza Owen said there were several key factors pushing prices up.
“The main drivers are record-low mortgage rates and relatively low levels of stock on the market and that’s something that’s driving an upswing across most areas of Australia,” she said.
“The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have been top destinations for internal migration for years now.
“In an environment where there’s no international migration, that internal movement is really benefiting markets relative to other parts of the country.”
Ms Owen said prices were expected to keep rising in 2021.
“In terms of prices steadying or falling across Queensland, I wouldn’t expect to see that until we get a significant uplift in the amount of stock on the market which is unlikely as people aren’t really moving as much at the moment,” she said.
“Or we see the cash rate increase, and as such mortgage rates would increase, and again that’s not something we would expect until the inflation target is between 2 and 3 per cent.
“[We would then] see the unemployment rate being really tight at around 4.5 per cent.”
The CoreLogic data also revealed the increase in house prices was widely spread across Australia.
‘We’ve missed the boat’
Emma and Grant Parkin were planning to move out of their townhouse and into a slightly larger home with their two young daughters.
The couple was one of 17 registered bidders for a house at Indooroopilly in Brisbane’s west that went to auction in late February.
It sold for more than $1.5 million — well above what they were expecting.
“We thought we were in with a chance and in about 20 seconds it was already above what we had planned to spend,” Ms Parkin said.
Mr Parkin said prices “have gone through the roof” since the threat of the coronavirus pandemic eased in Queensland.
“You’ve got people who can’t travel, so where are they going to spend their money?” he said.
“People can now work from home a lot more … so people are spending money on property and motor vehicles and consumables.”
Mr Parkin said the young family would now do some renovations to their townhouse and try to buy a larger home in a couple of years.
“I feel like we’ve missed the boat this time around and the concern is how high does it go?” he said.
“Property prices seldom if ever slow down and stop and decrease.
“If anything, the rate of increase just slows slightly and I think with the interstate influx and people working from home, it’s just gone through the roof.”
Not a bubble, says academic
Finance professor from the University of Queensland, Shaun Bond, said a strong up-tick in demand was affecting house prices.
“We’ve had a lot of people moving back to Australia from overseas, we’ve had almost half a million people by the latest count, we see record low interest rates,” he said.
“Plus, we see a lot of people rethinking their options, people choosing not to be in inner-city apartments, they’re choosing to think about lifestyle areas, they’re going for coastal areas, sometimes they’re looking at regional areas, even within a city like Brisbane they’re starting to think about larger suburban properties.”
Professor Bond said while price growth was strong, he would not classify it as a bubble.
“Yes, we’re seeing a strong up-tick in demand, but I feel like that can be explained by several of the factors we’ve discussed, plus the strong economic recovery we’re seeing in Australia as well — Australia has weathered the COVID crisis very well.
“The underlying economy is actually in a much better place than people thought it would be at this stage.”
Professor Bond said the rollout of the Coronavirus vaccine in Australia could affect the housing market.
“One of the things may be that it suddenly gives people more choices, so maybe some of those expats who returned from overseas may decide that they’re going to go back to the US, back to the UK to work or resume their careers there — people might start to travel again.”
Interstate migration at 20-year high
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) demographer Andrew Howe said over the last year Queensland had a net inflow of about 25,000 people.
“Although [it’s] still not quite as high as the peak years for interstate migration to Queensland in the early 1990s.”
Provisional internal migration figures from the ABS showed Queensland had a net gain of 7,237 people in the September 2020 quarter.
The number of people arriving in Queensland from other states fell in comparison with the previous quarter.
But, crucially, fewer people left Queensland, with departures at their lowest level since December 1994.
In net terms, Queensland gained more than 4,000 people from New South Wales in the September quarter.
Last week, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk told parliament more people were moving to Queensland’s regional areas rather than to Brisbane.
“This is contributing to the highest investment in new houses in Queensland since 1994,” she said.
Article Source: www.abc.net.au
Boomers a ‘Force of Change’ in Retirement Property Market
As teenagers they invented pop culture and now—much older, collectively wealthier and arguably wiser—they are defining a new age group and re-inventing retirement living.
Millenials may have surpassed them in numbers but baby boomers are still having significant influence on world economies and trends—not least in the property market.
“The baby boomers are coming through and have become a force for change in the seniors’ market,” said Cameron Kirby, managing director of Kirby Consulting Group, a retirement and aged care specialist.
“The more progressive operators are definitely getting their ducks in a line.
“And there’s a lot of developers interested in dipping their toes in the market for the first time, some of them with more than 30 years’ experience in the development industry, because they can see there is huge opportunity.
“[But] many developers that want to enter into this space are probably a bit reticent because they’re worried about the complexity of it, they’re worried about the unknowns.
“The opportunities, however, far outweigh any of their concerns.
“And if you’re offering what the market wants, you’re going to be successful.”
Kirby will be a speaker at The Urban Developer Developing For An Ageing Demographic vSummit on April 28.
“The sector is continuously changing,” he said.
“You’ve got land lease communities and over-55 developments that have been moving into the traditional retirement village space.
“And, at the moment, there’s a lot of talk about integrated care in retirement living with a greater weighting on having more retirement villages and less aged care.”
Last year, a survey by benchmarking firm StewartBrown showed 58 per cent of aged care homes were operating at a loss, up from 55 per cent the previous financial year, and 32 per cent made a cash loss.
“Aged care has got some major challenges … but in the meantime there’s also the baby boomers coming through,” Kirby said.
“What I’ve seen over the last 10 years is a bit of a slide where low-care people that used to go into aged care are more likely to go into retirement villages and, equally, people that used to go into more traditional retirement villages are now probably more interested in moving into land lease communities and over-55s concepts.
“Land lease communities are growing very fast and are hugely attractive, there’s no doubt about that … but retirement villages have upped the ante enormously as well, they tend to offer much more wellness and are moving more towards the care side of things.
“Certainly, operators who are offering care in retirement villages are going from strength to strength.
“There’s an increasing amount of quality retirement villages with hotel and resort-style living and state-of-the-art amenities coming online. Pools, gyms, spas, saunas, cinemas, you name it they’ve got it.
“But those retirement living operators that have a full continuum of care solution that’s what the market is demanding … [the boomers] know they’re going to need some support down the line so they’re planning for their future.
“It really doesn’t matter, however, whether you’re doing aged care, retirement, over-55s or land lease community … because demand is outstripping supply. There is a market for all of those and they attract very different types of buyers.”
Kirby said given Australia’s ageing demographic, the seniors and retirement market was a “much more defensive proposition” for developers.
“Just as healthcare is a defensive stock on the stock market, I think seniors living is a much more defensive play in the property sector,” he said.
“It tends to be more needs driven than what a straight-out residential property play would be.
“And so, I think if we are going to be headed towards a softer property market this is an area that can really shine because seniors will still have the wealth and will still want to move and look at downsizing opportunities.”
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
Houses still in high demand, apartment prices lag
The price growth of apartments continues to lag rocketing house prices in many suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne, with the trend showing little signs of abating.
The widening price gap between houses and units is a long-term trend driven by land scarcity in our biggest cities, with the difference tending to be widest between houses and high-rise apartments.
While house prices in Sydney’s North Ryde soared 29 per cent in the year ended March 31, unit prices in the suburb grew by a mere 6 per cent. Similarly, prices in Homebush grew 29 per cent, compared to unit price growth of just 7 per cent.
In Sydney’s Pennant Hills, house prices grew 24 per cent, while unit prices were flat, figures from CoreLogic show.
It is the same story in many parts of Melbourne, with Essendon North house prices growing by 19 per cent over the same period, while apartment prices fell by almost 1 per cent.
Houses in Melbourne’s Canterbury saw their prices jump more than 14 per cent, while units dipped 4 per cent. In inner-city Hawthorn East, houses were up 9.6 per cent, compared to a 6 per cent fall in unit prices.
Earlier analysis by CoreLogic showed more expensive property markets, particularly those close to CBDs and in areas where there are high numbers of units relative to houses, tend to have the biggest price gaps.
Eliza Owen, head of research at CoreLogic, says one of the reasons for the relative recent poor price performance of unit markets is COVID-19 related travel restrictions, including the closure of Australia’s international borders.
Demand for investment units in urbanised centres likely fell because of their high exposure to migrants and international students.
During the height of the pandemic, many units were empty, particularly in inner Melbourne.
The re-opening of international borders is seeing arrivals from overseas rising quickly, which should help to support the prices of units in both Sydney and Melbourne, she says.
However, Owen says one area of concern remains the prospect of higher mortgage interest rates, with prices of investment units more sensitive to rate movements than houses.
Many analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to start increasing official interest rates this year, possible as early as June, with lenders expected to pass on any hikes in their variable rate mortgages.
Following two years of surging property prices, the big gains made over the past year appear to be over.
Sydney house prices were 0.1 per cent lower in March after being flat in February. Unit prices were 0.5 per cent lower in March and 0.3 per cent lower in February.
In Melbourne, house prices down 0.2 per cent lower in March, following flat prices February. Unit prices were 0.2 per cent higher in March and 0.1 per cent higher in February. However, those small gains came after big falls in inner-city unit property values during COVID-19 restrictions.
Coming off the back of strong annual growth, falling affordability continues to be a key factor affecting property market conditions.
A surge in the cost of living and rising rents is restricting the ability of prospective homeowners to save and borrow.
In last month’s federal budget, the government expanded the number of places available in its low-deposit scheme.
The program allows first-home buyers, and others, to buy new or existing dwellings with a deposit of only 5 per cent, instead of the usual 20 per cent that is needed to avoid paying expensive lenders’ mortgage insurance.
Article Source: www.brisbanetimes.com.au
Brisbane house prices leave units in the dust
The gap between house and apartment prices in Brisbane is now the widest in at least two decades, but is set to shrink over the next 12 months as housing affordability bites and buyers choose cheaper options, Colliers says.
Colliers residential director Queensland, Andrew Roubicek, said the price difference between houses and apartments in Brisbane has reached 45 per cent compared with an average of around 20 per cent between 2003 and 2015.
Brisbane house prices further escalated with the onset on COVID-19 when people placed a higher value on privacy with interstate migration to the Sunshine State also propelling Queensland’s property market.
Property data company CoreLogic estimates that Brisbane house prices increased 32 per cent in the year ended March 31 compared with 15 per cent growth for units over the same period.
CoreLogic said house price growth is slowing faster than units and Mr Roubicek predicted that Brisbane apartment values will rise by “at least” another 15 per cent in the next 12 months.
Mr Roubicek said rising construction costs have hit the new apartment market hard and that comparable established stock costs about 25 per cent less.
“There have been several examples of new developments achieving pre-sale [targets] only to have developers refund deposits and tear up contracts because building costs escalated to a point where it was financially unviable,” he said.
“As a consequence, developers who are looking to acquire new development sites are forced to increase their projected sales prices by around 20 per cent.
“Just 18 months ago a two-bedroom apartment in Brisbane might have sold off the plan for $9000 per square metre.
“But to build that apartment today the developer would need to achieve a sale price of $11,000 per square metre for the project to stack up.”
He said as result new stock is selling slower than established units, a trend that will play out through the rest of this year.
“The market is coming to terms with those newer prices and are seeing in the short-term better value for money in the established unit market.”
He said it is a similar scenario to when GST was introduced in 2000.
“When GST came into the market overnight the cost of housing went up 10 per cent and put more demand into the established market, where the prices of stock grew and the difference between new and second hand became narrower.”
Mr Roubicek said he believed the record price gap between houses and apartments will contract through the year.
“If you believe in history, if you believe in charts, and take a long-term view you would have to think that gap is going to narrow because everyone’s talking about affordability, everyone’s talking about interest rate movements,” he said.
“Natural forces will push what would have been a buyer of a detached home back into the unit market because of affordability.”
Article Source: www.afr.com
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