It has been a stellar year for Australia’s housing market despite the ongoing uncertainty created by the pandemic.
Fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand and record-low interest rates helped support household and business spending across the country as states were plunged into rolling lockdowns.
The leading light has been Australia’s housing market and its breakneck capital growth over 2021.
Prices have surged by 22.2 per cent nationally, the largest annual increase since 1989, to push the estimated value of residential real estate to $9.4 trillion.
Federal and state governments have also driven city-shaping with major public infrastructure activity now set to double over the next three years, peaking at $52 billion in 2023.
To find out more about the year that was, we turned to the residential property industry and discovered what their biggest takeaways and learnings were from a trying 2021.
“The past 12 months have been an incredible rollercoaster and demand in the south-east Queensland residential market, in particular the coastal lifestyle markets, has been overwhelming.
“The announcement of the Olympics for our river city will also undoubtedly maintain the momentum over the coming ‘golden decade’.
“The competition has accelerated the volume and quality of offerings now in the market, along with significant pressure on the construction industry.”
Head of Property Assets
“The growth in the value of the Australian residential property market over the past year surpassed most commentators’ expectations.
“The pandemic has been notable for driving a strong shift in consumer sentiment towards lower density living, and for causing a flight from capital cities to regional areas.
“However, easing border restrictions and the eventual return of overseas students, immigrants, and hospitality workers, as well as businesses and nightlife, are expected to reverse this trend and boost demand for city accommodation.”
Dare Property Group
“2021 has been a year of expansion for Dare Property Group.
“Coming out of lockdown our predictions have been reaffirmed and we have seen record prices across the commercial and residential sectors we operate in.
“After the sell-out launch of Kalypso in Tamarama, where I still hold the penthouse, and the increasing demand for our Zero Gipps commercial building in Melbourne, our focus has never been clearer as we gear up to launch three new projects in 2022.”
Joint Managing Director
“The industry certainly saw its challenges in 2021, but the sustained popularity of the regions—driven by lifestyle benefits and continued infrastructure investment and the desire to get into the market—has fuelled another year of solid growth throughout Melbourne and Queensland’s booming growth corridors.
“Some of this activity was certainly fuelled by the ‘fear of missing out’, particularly among first-home buyers.
“We expect this current trend of regional migration, particularly to Queensland, to continue well into 2022, as a combination of factors including affordability, lifestyle benefits, and greater ability to work-from-home continue to drive buyer demand.”
Head of Residential Research
“Over the past year we’ve seen exceptional advancement in the prestige residential market across Australia.
“As the evolution towards luxury apartment living continues, so has the delivery expectation of the affluent population to a truly exceptional global standard.
“Accordingly, watching the number of new and established super-prime apartment sales surge, was a defining moment in 2021.”
“The year started off with very different property market conditions—demand was starting to pick up and price growth was well and truly happening.
“The stand-out however has been how extreme conditions have been. Sydney’s median is now up over 50 per cent since the start of the pandemic, while Canberra has just hit a $1-million median. Hobart is now the fourth most expensive capital city in Australia.
“The biggest learning I think has been—don’t listen to the noisy commentary out there but stick to looking closely at a wide range of data sets, as well as speaking to people on the ground, to get a good understanding as to what is going on.”
“Materials have become tight pushing building costs up. The overall effect threatens to be inflationary, which isn’t what we want when a key issue facing the industry is affordability.
“The biggest setback in regional Victoria is the introduction of the Windfalls Gains Tax, which is already leading to developers walking away from purchases.
“This is due to the valuation used for the tax margin being based on council rates rather than the higher price by the developer—meaning the land could actually cost up to 50 per cent than what it is worth. This will exacerbate already critical land shortages.”
“The standout moment for me for 2021 is that we now have a team of almost 50 professionals supported by armies of consultants and contractors.
“The reality is that all elements of the development industry are exhausted and needs time to reset—we have all put our heads down and got on with the job in really tough and changing times and I applaud everyone for that stoic performance.
“At a more operational level, we have doubled the size of the team and increased our footprint in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia with commitments to enter New South Wales, ACT and South Australia in the next six months.”
Traders in Purple
“The test has been the response to these conditions, with the pandemic perhaps best described as a ‘Black Swan’ event for the property industry and other industries, of course.
“A standout of 2021 was the effectiveness of increased liquidity in the economy in an already very low interest rate environment, meaning more open lending criteria for both residential and commercial property buyers and business investment giving the country an insight into the effectiveness of liquidity to regulate economic activity.
“This doesn’t come without long-term consequences and management of these will be a challenge for governments of the future.”
Fund Manager – Build-to-Rent
“This year saw the emerging build-to-rent sector in Australia really gain momentum with new projects, partnerships and platforms being announced each week.
“I am encouraged by how the broader industry and government is reacting to the new sector and, to single out a defining moment in 2021, the NSW and Victorian governments have made a great first move to ensure the sector receives fair tax treatment which has in-turn kick-started construction on a number of projects. It is drastically needed to ease the housing issues across the country.
“It now seems logical that the federal government would also come to the tax table.”
The National Property Research Company
“The year 2021 has been dominated by the non-bank sector in financing new projects with the weight of capital looking for a home, particularly high net worth investors through to offshore super funds, meaning competition for development sites making many potential projects borderline given the generally compressed margins.
“While the Olympics is the obvious answer for south-east Queensland and how it will generate infrastructure growth over the next decade, the short-term defining moments extend to many capital city local council areas having a shortage of greenfield land available for development which saw house prices escalate rapidly and thereby excluding the first home buyer segment.
“Consequently APRA has stepped into the residential mortgage space attempting to put the brakes on the rapid house price movement, much like it did in slowing the investment cycle of 2016-2018.”
“The slowdown in the build-to-sell market has cemented build-to-rent’s status in Australia—this has been one of the most significant turning points in the Australian property market in recent years.
“Tensions with China has had a massive impact, and there’s been pullback from large developers and individual investors alike—there is still a lot to play out here and the impact this has will be very important.
“Soaring construction costs off the back of the trade and importing restrictions remain one of the biggest threats to our industry into 2022.”
BIS Oxford Economics
“Given the ongoing challenge of the pandemic, from lockdowns, supply chain disruptions and inflation, the economy and the property sector within it have generally been resilient.
“Restrictions have knocked both residential construction and housing market activity at times, but in general the sector is in a stronger position now (in terms of activity levels and prices) than it was before the pandemic.
“Fiscal and monetary policy support have clearly played a major part in this. But for me, this year has also confirmed the fundamental importance to people of where and how they live their lives.”
“The 2021 year was a record-breaking one for the national greenfield market with land sale volumes 170 per cent higher than 2019 and 43 per cent higher than 2020.
“A major change has been the rise in the popularity of peri-urban and regional land markets.
“Markets such as the Hunter Region, Geelong surf coast, Ballarat, and the Sunshine Coast have all experienced significant lifts in underlying demand for land while smaller metropolitan markets such as Adelaide experienced a doubling of demand and Perth’s greenfield market registered a 127 per cent increase in activity.”
“Spyre backed its knowledge gained in the market over the past decade, and acted on it, securing six sites this year.
“We saw it as optimal timing, others saw it as achievable in a market not yet ready for this level of product.
“Spyre’s three master crafted products, which will be built on the Burleigh headland at 10 Goodwin Terrace, will definitely be one of our proudest, defining moments in our development career and especially in 2021 when the world is at the height of uncertainty.”
Capital and Acquisitions
“A stand out for me was the day the Victoria government decided to shut down the whole construction industry for two weeks. That was a defining moment in 2021.
“The impact and ripple effect of the construction shutdown on families, businesses and the property development sector was far greater than any loud message the government was wanting to send to a very small minority of disrupters.
“It’s a typical government approach of act first, think later and demonstrates their inability to think laterally and commercially through this pandemic in order to find some kind of balance in managing health, lives and the economy.”
“The announcement that Brisbane will host the Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2032 delivered an immediate boost in investment-attracting confidence that will continue to build throughout the next decade.
“We’ll look back on 2021 as a turning point for transformational growth for south-east Queensland.
“It is our collective responsibility to think bigger, to be courageous in our decision-making, and to plan further into the future to 2032 and beyond, with a global perspective.”
“Funding assumptions based on limited pre-sales relies on non-bank lenders. Fortunately our projects have been aligned with Pallas Capital which has allowed us to push ahead and deliver the quality that the market expects in a reasonable timeframe.”
“Consistent and transparent communication with buyers throughout uncertain times, such as government mandated construction shutdowns, is absolutely essential.
“Being on the front foot of communication and being available to answer queries maintains and provides the platform for a trusting and working relationship between the developer and buyer.”
Time & Place
“The pandemic has increased the tendency for people to live and work in isolation which can have a negative influence on our lives and we need to be able to return to our cities, attend sporting events, enjoy the arts and travel again.
“A takeaway for us was that as people adjusted to remotely working for a second year in a row, there was an expectation for a different type of amenity within a commercial space—something that better reflected the transition in the work/home balance.
“I think that 2021 gave us the opportunity to collectively reevaluate what we want from our lives and while I think that we did lose an element of joy from our lives, it has given us a great opportunity to rethink how we live post-pandemic.”
“The standout defining moment for the property sector in 2021 was the 2.8 per cent surge in national home prices in March reflecting a combination of record low mortgage rates, incentives and a rush out of inner-city units into suburban and regional houses.
“The key learnings are that low rates trump an economic downturn in driving home prices if incomes are protected and defaults are avoided; that an absence of immigrants and foreign buyers does not necessarily mean that property prices go down as long as there are offsets working the other way: and that technology is set to have a profound impact on where we work and live.
“The latter is profound—while the pandemic was the change agent, the work from home phenomenon, made possible by technology, provides a path toward more affordable decentralised regional living.”
Head of Research
“Over the course of 2021 we saw more buoyancy in consumer sentiment through lockdown periods, where consumer sentiment remained above 100 all through lockdowns between June and October.
“I think people became ‘used’ to these periods, saw that the housing market wasn’t really affected by them price wise, and became less cautious about making purchases.
“This year has seen some extraordinary figures with Australian residential real estate hitting a record high $9.4 trillion, sales volumes reaching the highest level since 2003 and rental values reaching the highest since 2008.”
“This year has provided us with a renewed sense of optimism for the future of inner city multi-residential living.
“In particular, being close to friends, family, community and amenities is as important as ever.
“The past 12 months have seen the demand for high-quality home-sized apartment living unwavering—it is now considered a highly desirable option for more people, many of whom are living and working with more flexibility.”
Head of Residential
“There hasn’t been a defining moment as such, but rather consistent performance across both our masterplanned communities and apartment projects.
“The industry continued to demonstrate great resilience through the ups and downs of 2021 and we finished the year in a strong place.
“It reinforced to us that great products always sell—that is what we have found, with strong pre-sales for a range of apartment projects we launched this year.
Senior Research Analyst
“Stalled population growth, due to international border closures, hasn’t hindered underlying demand. In fact, demand has been so strong it exceeded the rate of new listings coming to market, depleting overall total stock to a multi-year low.
“The year’s heightened level of activity is not just a result of pent-up demand from lockdown, it reflects changed property decisions compelling more households to make a move. It has been the year of change and nothing shows this more than consumer behaviour when searching for property.
“The pandemic has forced us all to use our homes differently as we spent more time than ever in them and perhaps forever made a mark on our purchasing decisions, property wish lists and architectural trends.”
“A stand-out moment for the residential sector over the past year was seeing the scale of the impact that various federal and state government policy measures introduced to stimulate the property sector had on the industry and more broadly, on the Australian economy.
“From a customer perspective, the past 12 months have continued to highlight that shifts in work life and home life balance are driving home buyers and renters to re-evaluate what’s important.
“We’re generally seeing customers in the residential market demanding more either in terms of the quality of their home design, or in respect to location for lifestyle which has aligned well with Jinding’s communities.”
“Experience, patience and passion matters.
“The days of developments sprouting up by unknown developers without a track record but still being able to secure pre-sales, construction funding and a builder are few and far between.
“Whereas, those with a strong track record who are visible and able to engage with their market, and have existing relationships in the industry with funders and professionals are still able to navigate forwards.”
“In January, we launched our townhouse project at South Crescent [Victoria] and it sold out in five days.
“This was a real defining moment for us where we realised that ultimately, pandemic or not, if you are designing high-quality homes they will always sell.
“From a sales perspective, we are noticing that potential buyers are more knowledgeable than ever and have a much better understanding of what they are looking for—this makes it easier for us to find the right Neometro home from them.”
“The pandemic was undoubtedly the dominating factor affecting the property industry and economy in general this year; particularly in markets most directly affected by prolonged lockdowns including Greater Sydney and Melbourne.
“Pre-Covid, foreign buyers made up at least 50 per cent of purchasers, while during the pandemic they were nowhere to be seen.
“The second half of 2021 saw strong buyer demand for completed new apartments given the shortage of existing housing stock on the market and by the fourth quarter we saw the return of investors in the off-the-plan market.”
Lang Walker AO
“The resilience of the property industry is testament to the attitudes within, as we forged ahead with our $30-billion project pipeline, to ensure 2021 remained a big year for us.
“While the pandemic restricted interstate and international travel we shifted gear and learnt new ways to keep delivering on our vision.
“The success is on the scoreboard, as we’ve sold over 500 lots in 10 months since launching Riverlea—South Australia’s largest masterplanned community, feeding the supply lines of Australia’s booming housing market.”
“The past 12 months have certainly been interesting, however, I believe the way in which Queensland responded to Covid-19 and the lifestyle that we represent overall as a clean, fresh and vibrant state really drove up the demand for our property sector.
“The pandemic brought what was probably undervalued real estate in line with our southern counterparts.
“I have also begun to see a marked increase in sustainable features within the construction space, particularly from the larger players as this becomes fashionable and necessary at the same time.”
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
Why rising interest rates are good news for property investors
Cashed-up property investors are set to be the biggest winners from the first in what’s likely to be a series of hikes in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official cash rate.
The rise from the historic low of 0.1 per cent to 0.35 per cent, together with the forecast of more to come, sparked immediate fear and loathing from those whose finances were already strained by record-high home prices.
“I think we will now see a reduction in buyer demand in the market as a result of some of the scaremongering that’s gone on about this rise,” says Nicola McDougall, the chair of the Property Investment Professionals of Australia.
“As a result, the more experienced investors and more savvy home buyers will welcome less competition in the market.
“At the same time, they tend to have the discretionary income and cash flows because they’re high-income earners, so they’re the least likely to be affected by these minor increases in the interest rate.
“They will probably have a more sophisticated understanding of monetary policy and financial markets too, and will welcome a return to more sustainable conditions.”
While the RBA tends to cut rates very quickly when the economy slumps, such as after the GFC and during the COVID pandemic, it tends to lift rates extremely slowly, she points out.
The last time it increased the cash rate because of inflationary concerns was during the two years from March 2006 to March 2008, when the rate rose only two percentage points over the whole period.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show this recent 0.25 per cent rate rise will increase interest rate charges on an average mortgage of $600,000 by an additional $1500 a year.
Borrowers have enjoyed rate cuts of 1.9 per cent over the last six years, says Godfrey Dinh, chief executive of fintech Futurerent, so they shouldn’t be concerned about such a minor lift, particularly as they’ve already been assessed at much higher interest rates.
“Prestige property investors are likely to have most of their portfolios in Sydney and Melbourne anyway, so have benefitted from phenomenal levels of capital growth,” says Dinh, whose company gives property investors up to $100,000 of rent in advance.
“Against those, this interest rate is not significant.
“Most have bought in the cycle and have had a dream run with price growth and rental growth, and they’d typically have a lot of contingencies built in.
“They’ll have good incomes and are happy to run negatively geared property and have no problem covering a cash flow shortfall.”
But it will squeeze everyone’s hip pocket, believes Loan Market director and mortgage broker Alex Lambros.
And if investors are buying more expensive homes, it will hit them harder.
“A 0.25 per cent interest rate rise on a $10 million property will be a significant jump,” he says.
“The wealthier might have different buffers in place – more cash or more assets they can sell to raise cash – but they’ll feel it just the same.
Article source: www.domain.com.au
How To Find The Top New Property Listings
It can be difficult to find the top new property listings when there are so many offers on the market. However, by taking a few simple steps, you can make the process much easier. First, you need to define your market and consider different forms of marketing. Then, connect with other agents in your area and search niche blogs and other local publications for real estate solutions. Finally, ask for referrals from your current connections and use all of the information you’ve gathered to find the best new property listings for your business.
Define your market
When you’re looking for new property listings, it’s important to have a clear idea of the type of property you’re interested in. You need to know your target market inside and out so that you can focus your search on the right places. Consider what type of properties are in demand in your area and what price range you’re looking for.
Once you have a good understanding of your market, you can start to narrow down your search. As seen with off-market properties, some of the best listings are not always advertised publicly. They may be sold through word-of-mouth or by networking with other agents in your area.
Consider different forms of marketing
There are many different ways to market your business, and each one has its advantages and disadvantages. Traditional marketing methods such as print ads, radio commercials,
and TV commercials can be expensive and time-consuming. However, they can reach a wide audience and generate leads quickly. Social media marketing is another option that is often used by real estate agents. It’s a great way to connect with potential clients and build relationships. However, it can be difficult to stand out from the crowd on social media.
Connect with other agents in your area
One of the best ways to find new property listings is to connect with other agents in your area. They may be willing to share their listing inventory with you or refer you to their clients. You can also search for real estate agents on social media and connect with them that way. By building relationships with other agents, you’ll be able to get access to the best listings before they’re advertised publicly.
Search niche blogs and other local publications for real estate solutions
Another great way to find new property listings is to search niche blogs and other local publications for real estate solutions. These publications often have classified ads that list properties for sale. You can also find contact information for real estate agents in these publications. By searching through these resources, you’ll be able to find listings that are not advertised anywhere else.
Ask for referrals
If you’re having trouble finding new property listings, ask for referrals from your current clients. They may know someone who is looking to sell their property or they may have seen a listing that isn’t advertised yet. Referrals can be a great way to get access to new listings before they hit the market.
Use your current connections
Finally, don’t forget to use your current connections when you’re searching for new property listings. Your family, friends, and colleagues may know someone who is looking to sell their property. They may also be able to give you referrals to other agents in your area. By using all of your connections, you’ll be able to find the best new listings for your business.
Finding the top new property listings can be a challenge. Use all of the resources at your disposal to get ahead of the competition and grow your business. Thanks for reading!
House prices to plummet as huge interest rate increase expected
A major bank has warned house prices will plummet this year as faster rate hikes have a chilling impact on the property market, amid fears that interest rates could rise by a whopping 0.4 per cent next month.
Earlier this year, ANZ had predicted that house prices would rise by 8 per cent on average in capital cites across Australia, but it has now slashed the forecast to house values dropping by 3 per cent in 2022 on the back of unexpected rate rises for the rest of the year.
The major bank has also forecast that house prices will plunge by a further 8 per cent next year, an even bigger drop than its earlier forecast for 2023.
The country’s third biggest home lender said the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move to raise rates far earlier than expected would have a sobering effect on the property market as buyers are limited by the amount they can borrow.
ANZ senior economists Felicity Emmett and Adelaide Timbrell have said interest rates will hit 2.35 per cent by the middle of 2023, although other experts have tipped them to reach as high as 3.25 per cent by that year.
“Housing prices look set to turn lower in coming months,” the economists wrote.
“While fixed rates have already risen sharply, the steep increases in the cash rate will flow through to variable mortgage rates, lifting minimum repayments significantly and reducing borrowing power. Macroprudential tightening, solid supply and constrained affordability will also be headwinds for house prices.”
ANZ’s economists added that official interest rates of 2.35 per cent would see a variable mortgage rate soar to 4.75 per cent, which would “significantly” reduce how much people could borrow.
House prices have already began to drop in some capitals. In Sydney, prices decreased for the first time since early in the pandemic by 0.1 per cent in April and in Hobart the drop was more marked at 0.44 per cent, the first time prices have fallen since early 2018.
ANZ predicted Sydney house prices would drop the most dramatically in the coming months with a fall of 8 per cent this year as a greater supply of homes hit the market and lenders further tighten their lending standards.
Interest rate rises would also trigger a drop of 8 per cent in Sydney house prices in 2023, their economists said.
For Melbourne, prices were expected to decrease by 5 per cent this year and 6 per cent in 2023, although Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth would buck the trend and still see house prices go up this year.
But 2023 was a different story with house prices predicted to drop by 9 per cent in Brisbane, 13 per cent in Adelaide and 7 per cent in Perth, according to ANZ economists.
Despite the RBA expressing concerns about the impact of higher interest rates on Australians who are highly indebted when it comes to property, according to the minutes published from its May 3 meeting, it still caught experts off guard when it hiked rates by 0.25 per cent.
However, homeowners narrowly avoided an even bigger jump and there’s a risk this super-sized move could be made by the RBA in June, experts have warned.
The RBA minutes showed it was weighing up a rate rise of either 0.15 per cent, 0.25 per cent or 0.4 per cent.
“Members agreed that raising the cash rate by 15 basis points was not the preferred option given that policy was very stimulatory and that it was highly probable that further rate rises would be required,” the minutes said.
“A 15-basis-point increase would also be inconsistent with the historical practice of changing the cash rate in increments of at least 25 basis points.
“An argument for an increase of 40 basis points could be made given the upside risks to inflation and the current very low level of interest rates.
“However, members agreed that the preferred option was 25 basis points. A move of this size would help signal that the board was now returning to normal operating procedures after the extraordinary period of the pandemic.”
Economists are predicting that a 0.4 per cent rate rise could seriously be in play for June.
Commonwealth Bank’s Belinda Allen argued it can’t be “ruled out” and will hinge on data from the Wage Price Index.
Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans said a 0.4 per cent increase in June could be seen as “best policy” considering labour shortages, rising labour costs and inflation challenges.
He added there was no “real argument” against the 0.4 per cent rise next month, “although the RBA said that because it meets monthly it would have the opportunity to review the setting of interest rates again within a relatively short period of time”.
The RBA’s reference to other central banks around the world moving to raise interest rates could be another telling sign that the bigger rate hike is on the cards.
“Several central banks in advanced economies had indicated that they were seeking to return policy rates to a neutral setting quickly and may increase policy rates further thereafter,” the minutes said.
The RBA also revealed that its economists assumed interest rates will hit 1.75 per cent by the end of the year and 2.5 per cent by the end of 2023.
All of Australia’s banking juggernauts responded to this month’s historic rate rise within hours and passed on the hike.
It’s a challenge that the RBA is well aware of too.
“Housing prices in Australia could also be more sensitive to rising interest rates than assumed, which would be likely to result in lower household wealth and consumption,” the minutes read.
Article source: www.news.com.au
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