BRISBANE has emerged the capital city least affected by the housing downturn, according to new evidence revealing the suburbs that recorded double-digit growth over the past year.
It has been a tough year for the nation’s residential property market, but new research from realestate.com.au shows the Queensland capital weathered the storm better than most capital cities.
Brisbane took out three of the top 10 national spots for suburbs that defied the downturn and recorded double-digit growth in the 12 months to September — the only city to do so apart from Adelaide, which also had three suburbs in the top 10.
House prices in Chelmer, Northgate and Ipswich jumped at a time when most suburbs around the nation were going backwards.
Chelmer and Northgate even beat the affluent suburb of Vaucluse in Sydney.
From waterfront enclaves to first homebuyer hot spots, Greater Brisbane’s lifestyle, affordability, amentiy and access to jobs proved just how resilient the city’s housing market is.
The leafy riverside suburb of Chelmer, in Brisbane’s west, recorded the strongest house price growth of 31 per cent year-on-year in the 12 months to the end of August, according to realestate.com.au.
The phenomenal growth saw Chelmer’s median house price increase to $1.29 million.
Chelmer residents David and Yvonne Todd are selling their stunning, five-bedroom Georgian-style house at 17 Lama Street after living there for 11 years.
Mr Todd said he was not surprised by the growth in the suburb because it had so much to offer.
“There’s certainly been a lot of investment in the area from people improving their properties, so we’re certainly very cognicant of the suburb’s performance,” Mr Todd said.
The couple was initially attracted to Chelmer because of its proximity to good schools, the fact it was on the train line and the community feel of the suburb.
“What is interesting in the area is there seems to be a huge amount of people who live all their lives here, but might move within the area,” Mr Todd said.
Now that their three children have grown up and left home, the Todds are looking to downsize and plan to spend more time in Europe.
“My wife is a photographer and our youngest son is in Europe … so what we need is more of a lock up and go, rather than a family home,” Mr Todd said.
Ann-Karyn Fraser of Place Estate Agents, who is marketing the home, said she had noticed the increase in house prices in Chelmer and the continued strong interest in the suburb and the surrounding suburbs of Graceville and Sherwood.
“I put it down to the liveability of the suburb,” Ms Fraser said.
“The community Chelmer embraces is so rare and that’s why so many people flock there — the beautiful homes, the infrastructure we have, the schooling, the railway line, and the easy access to the CBD.”
Northgate experienced house price growth of 25 per cent in the year to September, despite general weakness in the overall housing market.
Unlike Chelmer, it has a more affordable median house price of $733,500, but bargains are becoming harder to find.
Rebecca and Marko Vuksanovic have just sold their house at 51 Junior Terrace in Northgate for $1.05 million, making a healthy profit on what they bought it for six years ago.
“We were quite pleasantly surprised,” Mrs Vuksanovic said.
“It was a bit of a record for this little pocket and sold after the first open home.”
The couple are relocating overseas, but could not be happier to have invested in the suburb.
“It was perfect for us,” Mrs Vuksanovic said.
“My husband and I both work locally, it’s got awesome proximity to the city, the airport and freeways north and south.
“We just think it’s the perfect suburb.”
Selling agent Dwight Colbert of Ray White – Aspley Group said he had noticed “continuously strong” growth in Northgate in the six years he had been selling homes there.
Mr Colbert said he had sold more than 20 homes in the suburb in the past 12 months and part of its appeal to buyers was its proximity to the airport, Northgate train station and the CBD.
“I think everyone thinks Northgate is the older suburb, with older homes, but … people udnerestimate the value of the homes in Northgate,” Mr Colbert said.
“It is now becoming one of those attraction locations people want to be in.”
The Ipswich region also featured prominently on the list of suburbs to record double digit house price growth in the year to September.
The median house price in Ipswich rose 20 per cent to hit $385,000, while North Ipswich experienced 12 per cent growth and Ripley recorded an 11 per cent increase in its median house price to $415,000.
On the Gold Coast, premium suburbs with homes with $1 million-plus price tags recorded the highest growth.
Suburbs such as Kingscliff, Paradise Point, Clear Island Waters, and Surfers Paradise weathered the downturn — recording double digit price growth.
Now that buyers are back and auction clearance rates are improving, some experts are calling the bottom of the market.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said he believed Brisbane home prices were “close to fair value” after an extended period where there was a wind-down of housing prices relative to incomes.
“The worst overvaluation recorded was early 2008 whereby the market was 45 per cent overvalued,” Mr Christopher said.
“This occurred as a result of the Brisbane housing boom of 2003 to 2008 — a period where housing prices doubled in just five years.”
Mr Christopher expects the Brisbane market to respond to recent interest rate cuts and relative loose credit for the remainder of the year.
“We are forecasting a 0.6 per cent rise in housing prices for the current September quarter and a further 1.5 per cent for the December quarter,” he said.
Boomers a ‘Force of Change’ in Retirement Property Market
As teenagers they invented pop culture and now—much older, collectively wealthier and arguably wiser—they are defining a new age group and re-inventing retirement living.
Millenials may have surpassed them in numbers but baby boomers are still having significant influence on world economies and trends—not least in the property market.
“The baby boomers are coming through and have become a force for change in the seniors’ market,” said Cameron Kirby, managing director of Kirby Consulting Group, a retirement and aged care specialist.
“The more progressive operators are definitely getting their ducks in a line.
“And there’s a lot of developers interested in dipping their toes in the market for the first time, some of them with more than 30 years’ experience in the development industry, because they can see there is huge opportunity.
“[But] many developers that want to enter into this space are probably a bit reticent because they’re worried about the complexity of it, they’re worried about the unknowns.
“The opportunities, however, far outweigh any of their concerns.
“And if you’re offering what the market wants, you’re going to be successful.”
Kirby will be a speaker at The Urban Developer Developing For An Ageing Demographic vSummit on April 28.
“The sector is continuously changing,” he said.
“You’ve got land lease communities and over-55 developments that have been moving into the traditional retirement village space.
“And, at the moment, there’s a lot of talk about integrated care in retirement living with a greater weighting on having more retirement villages and less aged care.”
Last year, a survey by benchmarking firm StewartBrown showed 58 per cent of aged care homes were operating at a loss, up from 55 per cent the previous financial year, and 32 per cent made a cash loss.
“Aged care has got some major challenges … but in the meantime there’s also the baby boomers coming through,” Kirby said.
“What I’ve seen over the last 10 years is a bit of a slide where low-care people that used to go into aged care are more likely to go into retirement villages and, equally, people that used to go into more traditional retirement villages are now probably more interested in moving into land lease communities and over-55s concepts.
“Land lease communities are growing very fast and are hugely attractive, there’s no doubt about that … but retirement villages have upped the ante enormously as well, they tend to offer much more wellness and are moving more towards the care side of things.
“Certainly, operators who are offering care in retirement villages are going from strength to strength.
“There’s an increasing amount of quality retirement villages with hotel and resort-style living and state-of-the-art amenities coming online. Pools, gyms, spas, saunas, cinemas, you name it they’ve got it.
“But those retirement living operators that have a full continuum of care solution that’s what the market is demanding … [the boomers] know they’re going to need some support down the line so they’re planning for their future.
“It really doesn’t matter, however, whether you’re doing aged care, retirement, over-55s or land lease community … because demand is outstripping supply. There is a market for all of those and they attract very different types of buyers.”
Kirby said given Australia’s ageing demographic, the seniors and retirement market was a “much more defensive proposition” for developers.
“Just as healthcare is a defensive stock on the stock market, I think seniors living is a much more defensive play in the property sector,” he said.
“It tends to be more needs driven than what a straight-out residential property play would be.
“And so, I think if we are going to be headed towards a softer property market this is an area that can really shine because seniors will still have the wealth and will still want to move and look at downsizing opportunities.”
Article Source: www.theurbandeveloper.com
Houses still in high demand, apartment prices lag
The price growth of apartments continues to lag rocketing house prices in many suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne, with the trend showing little signs of abating.
The widening price gap between houses and units is a long-term trend driven by land scarcity in our biggest cities, with the difference tending to be widest between houses and high-rise apartments.
While house prices in Sydney’s North Ryde soared 29 per cent in the year ended March 31, unit prices in the suburb grew by a mere 6 per cent. Similarly, prices in Homebush grew 29 per cent, compared to unit price growth of just 7 per cent.
In Sydney’s Pennant Hills, house prices grew 24 per cent, while unit prices were flat, figures from CoreLogic show.
It is the same story in many parts of Melbourne, with Essendon North house prices growing by 19 per cent over the same period, while apartment prices fell by almost 1 per cent.
Houses in Melbourne’s Canterbury saw their prices jump more than 14 per cent, while units dipped 4 per cent. In inner-city Hawthorn East, houses were up 9.6 per cent, compared to a 6 per cent fall in unit prices.
Earlier analysis by CoreLogic showed more expensive property markets, particularly those close to CBDs and in areas where there are high numbers of units relative to houses, tend to have the biggest price gaps.
Eliza Owen, head of research at CoreLogic, says one of the reasons for the relative recent poor price performance of unit markets is COVID-19 related travel restrictions, including the closure of Australia’s international borders.
Demand for investment units in urbanised centres likely fell because of their high exposure to migrants and international students.
During the height of the pandemic, many units were empty, particularly in inner Melbourne.
The re-opening of international borders is seeing arrivals from overseas rising quickly, which should help to support the prices of units in both Sydney and Melbourne, she says.
However, Owen says one area of concern remains the prospect of higher mortgage interest rates, with prices of investment units more sensitive to rate movements than houses.
Many analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to start increasing official interest rates this year, possible as early as June, with lenders expected to pass on any hikes in their variable rate mortgages.
Following two years of surging property prices, the big gains made over the past year appear to be over.
Sydney house prices were 0.1 per cent lower in March after being flat in February. Unit prices were 0.5 per cent lower in March and 0.3 per cent lower in February.
In Melbourne, house prices down 0.2 per cent lower in March, following flat prices February. Unit prices were 0.2 per cent higher in March and 0.1 per cent higher in February. However, those small gains came after big falls in inner-city unit property values during COVID-19 restrictions.
Coming off the back of strong annual growth, falling affordability continues to be a key factor affecting property market conditions.
A surge in the cost of living and rising rents is restricting the ability of prospective homeowners to save and borrow.
In last month’s federal budget, the government expanded the number of places available in its low-deposit scheme.
The program allows first-home buyers, and others, to buy new or existing dwellings with a deposit of only 5 per cent, instead of the usual 20 per cent that is needed to avoid paying expensive lenders’ mortgage insurance.
Article Source: www.brisbanetimes.com.au
Brisbane house prices leave units in the dust
The gap between house and apartment prices in Brisbane is now the widest in at least two decades, but is set to shrink over the next 12 months as housing affordability bites and buyers choose cheaper options, Colliers says.
Colliers residential director Queensland, Andrew Roubicek, said the price difference between houses and apartments in Brisbane has reached 45 per cent compared with an average of around 20 per cent between 2003 and 2015.
Brisbane house prices further escalated with the onset on COVID-19 when people placed a higher value on privacy with interstate migration to the Sunshine State also propelling Queensland’s property market.
Property data company CoreLogic estimates that Brisbane house prices increased 32 per cent in the year ended March 31 compared with 15 per cent growth for units over the same period.
CoreLogic said house price growth is slowing faster than units and Mr Roubicek predicted that Brisbane apartment values will rise by “at least” another 15 per cent in the next 12 months.
Mr Roubicek said rising construction costs have hit the new apartment market hard and that comparable established stock costs about 25 per cent less.
“There have been several examples of new developments achieving pre-sale [targets] only to have developers refund deposits and tear up contracts because building costs escalated to a point where it was financially unviable,” he said.
“As a consequence, developers who are looking to acquire new development sites are forced to increase their projected sales prices by around 20 per cent.
“Just 18 months ago a two-bedroom apartment in Brisbane might have sold off the plan for $9000 per square metre.
“But to build that apartment today the developer would need to achieve a sale price of $11,000 per square metre for the project to stack up.”
He said as result new stock is selling slower than established units, a trend that will play out through the rest of this year.
“The market is coming to terms with those newer prices and are seeing in the short-term better value for money in the established unit market.”
He said it is a similar scenario to when GST was introduced in 2000.
“When GST came into the market overnight the cost of housing went up 10 per cent and put more demand into the established market, where the prices of stock grew and the difference between new and second hand became narrower.”
Mr Roubicek said he believed the record price gap between houses and apartments will contract through the year.
“If you believe in history, if you believe in charts, and take a long-term view you would have to think that gap is going to narrow because everyone’s talking about affordability, everyone’s talking about interest rate movements,” he said.
“Natural forces will push what would have been a buyer of a detached home back into the unit market because of affordability.”
Article Source: www.afr.com
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