Investor demand for Brisbane apartments will start to moderate and both rental and capital growth will slow because of concerns over major oversupply, says leading real estate firm JLL.
The gap between home values in Brisbane and Sydney has grown and has encouraged interstate investors to south east Queensland, but there is some growing concern about the 19,800 apartments either under construction or being marketed within the inner-city precincts of Brisbane.
“The Brisbane apartment market has continued to flourish off the back of strong investor demand, as interstate and foreign investors seek to take advantage of the lower price point and higher yields Brisbane currently has to offer compared to capitals like Melbourne and Sydney,” JLL’s head of residential development valuations Troy Linnane said.
But JLL’s director of residential research Rupa Ganguli said strong demand will now start to slow.
“We do anticipate the investor market will moderate over the next 12 to 18 months, as large numbers of new apartments enter the rental market during 2016-2017,” Mr Ganguli said.
‘GROWTH WILL EASE’
“JLL anticipates that rental growth will ease with potential for median rents to decline when the unprecedented levels of supply enters the market coinciding with decreased rate of population growth.”
He said that would create problems for “investor type” stock but opportunities would be available to those developers focused on the high-end, owner-occupier market.
“The strong supply pipeline is also expected to limit the pace of capital growth in the apartment market out to 2017. Given the intensity of competition and future supply, some developers have moved away from the highly competitive investor stock and are focused on smaller owner-occupier projects.”
The warnings from JLL echo misgivings reported in the QBE LMI Australian Housing Outlook report prepared by BIS Shrapnel.
BIS managing director Robert Mellor said there were concerns over the three-year prospects for Brisbane units.
“The message has been out there for a while on Melbourne but I’m worried about Brisbane as well,” Mr Mellor said.
For the 2015 financial year, apartments made up over 45 per cent of all approvals to build new private-sector dwellings which was a record high.
Approvals for new apartments soared almost 84 per cent to 3145 in September, pushing the overall monthly total up 42 per cent to 5168.
Developer Pitches for $130m Shop-Top Housing on Bayside
Brisbane’s bayside could be going up in the world with plans for $130-million highrise shop-top housing in the heart of the seaside suburb of Wynnum.
Brisbane-based developer Hambros has lodged plans for a 21-storey apartment tower on the vacant lot neighbouring the Wynnum Central Shopping Centre, after winning approval for an small extension to the retail centre late last year.
The development comprises a 6-storey retail and commercial podium, with a 275-apartment tower above, backing on to Wynnum Central Park.
Hambros has reportedly spent about $14 million on revamping the Wynnum Central Shopping Centre on Bay Terrace, as part of a $74-million plan to rejuvenate Wynnum, including cinemas.
According to planning documents lodged with the Brisbane City Council, the tower will be made up of 54 one-bedroom apartments, 148 two-bedroom apartments, and 67 three-bedroom apartments, with six penthouses, which will have private rooftop space and their own pools.
The building height is well in excess of the allowable five to eight storeys in the Wynnum Manly Neighbourhood Plan, but town planners Gateway Survey and Planning argued the plan was “outdated” and should be overhauled.
The six-storey podium would contain two levels of parking, a retail tenancy at ground level, a floor of retail, with two storeys of commercial space for office, healthcare and events space on levels 5 and 6.
▲ Shayher Group won approval for its redevelopment of Wynnum Plaza last year, which included 184 apartments across eight residential buildings.
In a statement to the council Hambros director Justin Ham said the Wynnum CBD had been left behind “with no development occurring in the last 20 years”.
“Our project is designed to put Wynnum CBD on the ‘open for business’ map,” Ham said.
“This landmark development, with a construction cost estimated at $130 million will have a huge financial and community positive impact on the Wynnum CBD and surrounding areas.
“It’s a once-in-a-lifestime opportunity to create a beautiful space overlooking the best bay in the world.”
Ham said the development would bring much-needed foot traffic to the heart of the Wynnum CBD and help bolster businesses and landowners he said were struggling to remain profitable.
Taiwanese developer Shayher Group won approval for a masterplanned retail precinct at Wynnum Plaza with plans for 184 apartments across eight residential buildings as well as boutique cinemas and increased retail space, reportedly worth more than $100 million.
Work on the Wynnum Plaza redevelopment was due to commence later this year with a completion date hedged for 2024.
More room in the Brisbane property price bubble but get ready for a reckoning, says bank
Brisbane’s house prices would continue to outpace the nation this year but a significant slump was near, according to the ANZ.
The bank’s economics team has revised its outlook for house prices and now tips a fall of about 3 per cent nationally this year followed by an 8 per cent fall next year. It had previously tipped a rise of 8 per cent this year and a fall of 6 per cent next year.
In Brisbane, the monthly growth rate has slipped down to about 2.5 per cent and ANZ expects a yearly rate this year of about 6 per cent with a fall of about 9 per cent next year.
The higher end of the market in Brisbane was also continuing to outpace the middle and lower price bracket in growth rates.
The downturn was being caused by higher interest rates and affordability issues and ANZ said the “wealth effect” would come into play which would spread the housing downturn to other areas of the economy.
“Falling house prices will weigh on consumer spending through the wealth effect, but high savings will provide a solid buffer,” ANZ said.
It expects the RBA cash rate to get to 2.35 per cent by mid-2023 while the market is tipping a 3.25 per cent. A cash rate of 2.35 per cent meant a variable rate mortgage of 4.75 per cent and a 3.25 per cent rate would increase variable loans to 5.65 per cent.
It said some people may struggle but forced selling because of higher interest rates was a low risk.
Meanwhile, CoreLogic said the Coalition’s plan to allow first home buyers to access their superannuation accounts to help pay for a house had some merit but there were downsides, including the possibility that it would only stimulate demand for housing and increase the cost “eroding some of the benefit of dipping into their super”.
CoreLogic worked out that under the scheme the median amount that could be accessed would be about $10,000, the equivalent of state-based first home buyer grants.
“CoreLogic data shows the current median dwelling value in Australia is $748,635, meaning the scheme could help increase the size of a standard deposit by around 1 per cent,” the company said.
Chelmer: Why locals won’t leave this riverside Brisbane suburb
It’s a telling sign when families stay put in a certain place over multiple generations, where one’s childhood is made so complete, those who grow up there yearn to pass down this same upbringing to their own family.
This is certainly the case for Chelmer, a scenic suburb encased by the Brisbane River on three sides and known for its grand, quintessential Queenslander homes and laurel tree-lined streets.
According to Alex Jordan of McGrath Paddington, many locals in the area have been living in their homes for more than 40 years.
Often these homes are bought by the younger families who grew up in the area and are drawn back by the fond memories they hold.
“It’s very much a family-focused suburb; it’s the type of place where children still ride their bikes around the neighbourhood and families go for walks to simply admire the charming streets,” says Jordan.
Median house prices in Chelmer have increased by 47.1 per cent year-on-year. Photo: Supplied
“The natural beauty, varied demographic, and desirable lifestyle are the key factors in Chelmer’s desirability, along with the great local schools and its own train station.”
Domain’s latest House Price Report reveals Chelmer’s median house price is $1.765 million, rising 47.1 per cent year-on-year.
In Jordan’s opinion, the suburb’s wonderful sense of community and growing amenities are what keep the buyers strong and unwavering.
“There are many restaurants and cafes to enjoy – such as Botellon Tapas & Wine Bar, Boucher French Bistro, Hunter & Scout Cafe – with most businesses being owned by locals who live in the area,” Jordan explains.
“The number of nice parks, including Graceville Memorial Park and Gordon Thomson Park, leads many local families to become members of a variety of sporting clubs, ranging from cricket to rugby, which of course only adds to the area’s team spirit.”
Originally from country Victoria, Andrew Thomson has lived in Chelmer virtually all of his adult life, moving to the area 20 years ago, where he would buy a house and raise his family.
Having grown deep roots in the area since, Thomson is now the president of the local Australian rules football club – the Sherwood Magpies – a great hub for kids and adults alike, regardless of whether they play football.
“Chelmer’s strong sense of community is an integral part of this area, particularly during the devastation of the 2011 floods and the recent repeat of that on a lesser scale in 2022. When the clubhouse was threatened by rising floodwater, all it took was one quick post on social media and 100 people were there within 30 minutes ready to lend a hand,” recalls Thomson.
“It was amazing, though unsurprising to see, and it goes hand in hand with living in such a connected community and being part of a sporting club that sits at its heart.”
Given Chelmer’s abundance of green space and the clear separation thanks to the winding Brisbane River, Thomson notes how the area is akin to a peaceful peninsula, seemingly a world away from the city, but in reality, just a 10-minute drive from the Brisbane CBD.
“Ideal mornings may include a bike ride on the river loop or a stroll along the riverside, followed by a coffee stop at one of the many fantastic cafes,” says Thomson.
“Spring is particularly delightful, with great weather, the excitement of footy finals, and the smell of freshly cut lawns and suburban barbecues – it doesn’t get any better.”